The influence of ENSO events on the stratospheric QBO in a multi-model ensemble

Official version

Abstract

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two dominant modes of climate variability at the Equator. There exist observational evidences of mutual interactions between these two phenomena, but this possibility has not been widely studied using climate model simulations. In this work we assess how current models represent the ENSO/QBO relationship, in terms of the response of the amplitude and descent rate of stratospheric wind regimes, by analyzing atmosphere-only and ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations from a large multi-model ensemble. The annual cycle of the QBO descent rate is well represented in both coupled and uncoupled models. Previous results regarding the phase alignment of the QBO after the 1997/98 strong warm ENSO event are confirmed in a larger ensemble of uncoupled experiments. However, in general we find that a relatively high horizontal resolution is necessary to reproduce the observed modulation of the QBO descent rate under strong ENSO events, while the amplitude response is generally weak at any horizontal resolution. We argue that biases in the mean state and over-dependence on parameterized wave forcing undermine the realism of the simulated coupling between the ocean and the stratosphere in the tropics in current climate models. The modulation of the QBO by the ENSO in a high emission scenario consistently differs from that in the historical period, suggesting that this relationship is sensitive to changes in the large-scale circulation.